IRAN'S INTERNAL WAR OVER THE DEAL WENT LIVE ON STATE TV

• The Switzerland talks concluded their first round Sunday with Lebanon firmly at the centre. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed the session focused on Article 1 (ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon), Article 10 (US waivers for Iranian oil exports), and Article 11 (release of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets) 1AAM Iran says Switzerland talks with US focus on ending war, easing sanctions, releasing frozen assets. Iran's position is explicit: without implementation of those clauses, particularly the Lebanon ceasefire, Article 13 prevents even beginning nuclear negotiations 1AAM Iran says Switzerland talks with US focus on ending war, easing sanctions, releasing frozen assets. A source close to the Iranian team told Tasnim that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen under Clause 5 until Lebanon's territorial integrity is guaranteed 5TSN Source: Hormuz Strait Won’t Reopen Unless Israel Is Restrained in Lebanon. No joint statement was published as of compile time.

• Trump issued new threats toward Iran on Sunday that sit awkwardly alongside the Switzerland talks. He posted on Truth Social warning Iran to stop its "proxies in Lebanon" or the US would hit Tehran "very hard again, only harder" 4AAM Trump warns Iran to stop ‘proxies in Lebanon’ or US will hit Tehran 'very hard again'. He also told Fox News that if Iran closes Hormuz, "you won't have a country," and floated the idea of the US taking over the strait and collecting 20% of oil revenues as tolls 4AAM Trump warns Iran to stop ‘proxies in Lebanon’ or US will hit Tehran 'very hard again'. These are not coordinated-messaging talking points; they are improvisational pressure. The diplomatic problem is that Trump's threat to impose American tolls on Hormuz and Iran's demand for Iranian tolls on Hormuz are almost the same policy goal, framed as opposing threats. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, meanwhile, told Fox News that 67 ships carrying oil transited Hormuz in the last 24 hours, broadly matching pre-conflict levels 4AAM Trump warns Iran to stop ‘proxies in Lebanon’ or US will hit Tehran 'very hard again'. So the strait is functionally open while both sides threaten to control it. That situation is inherently unstable.

• The Minab school bombing inquiry, now four months old, has produced nothing public. The Guardian reports that the Pentagon has not released findings on the Tomahawk cruise missile strike on a girls' elementary school in Minab on February 28, which killed at least 175 people, mostly children under twelve 7GDN Four months after the horrific Iran school bombing, fears grow that Trump and Hegseth will bury the truth. Anonymous officials have told media the US was responsible and the strike was based on faulty intelligence, with the site misidentified as an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base 7GDN Four months after the horrific Iran school bombing, fears grow that Trump and Hegseth will bury the truth. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has not addressed it substantively. Trump, when asked at the G7 in Évian-les-Bains, said "mistakes are made. The war is nasty" 7GDN Four months after the horrific Iran school bombing, fears grow that Trump and Hegseth will bury the truth. Senate appropriators are attempting to block a portion of Hegseth's travel fund until the investigation report is delivered 13APW Congress picks up the pieces after the Iran war. This matters beyond the moral dimension: the families of the 4,106 Lebanese killed since March 2 and the Minab victims are the political audience Iran's hardliners are playing to when they demand war reparations as a non-negotiable condition.

• Congress is now formally grappling with what the war cost and whether the deal is worth it, with no consensus in sight. AP spoke to senators across the spectrum this week 13APW Congress picks up the pieces after the Iran war. Democratic Senator Chris Coons called the outcome "pathetic" and a "flawed strategic vision." Republican Senator Ron Johnson said the country is "safer today." The White House is seeking $1.5 trillion for the Pentagon this year, with Republicans considering a $350 billion top-up through budget reconciliation. The political calculus is that the war is ending but the bill is arriving, and the same Republican hawks who supported the conflict are now being asked to fund its diplomatic aftermath without any verified nuclear outcome. That is a difficult vote to explain at home.

• Ghalibaf's profile as Iran's lead negotiator is increasingly significant and underreported in Western coverage. A former IRGC commander who was on Israel's active target list as recently as March, he survived only because Pakistani officials warned Washington that eliminating him would remove one of the last credible interlocutors 15ABC As Trump praises 'very smart' leaders in Iran deal, Qalibaf is on the rise. He is now leading Iran's delegation in Switzerland while simultaneously being positioned domestically as someone who can sell the deal to the security establishment. He is not a moderate; he is a pragmatist with deep IRGC ties who has calculated that a deal serves Iran's institutional interests at this moment 15ABC As Trump praises 'very smart' leaders in Iran deal, Qalibaf is on the rise. Understanding that distinction matters for reading how durable any agreement he signs will actually be.

Energy prices as of June 19 tell a story of a market that believes the deal is real but not resolved. Brent at $80.59 is up slightly from $79.44 the day before, but down from $87 a week ago, reflecting the Hormuz-reopening dividend already largely priced in. The Gold/Oil ratio at 54.52 remains historically elevated, meaning gold has not retreated as fast as oil, which is markets saying: we believe the acute risk is lower, but we are not ready to call it over. The Israeli TA-125 index has now shed roughly 6% over the past month, a steady rather than panicked decline that tracks diplomatic uncertainty rather than acute military risk. European defence names are broadly flat. Nobody is pricing a clean resolution.

The Minab investigation is becoming a domestic political liability, not just a foreign policy one. Senate appropriators are already tying Hegseth's funding to delivery of the report 13APW Congress picks up the pieces after the Iran war, which means the cover-up calculation is getting more expensive. For Western publics, the more immediate signal is at the fuel pump: RBOB gasoline futures at $2.91 are down nearly 14% from a month ago, and that is beginning to feed through to retail prices in the US. European governments watching Brent hover around $80 are getting the energy relief they promised their electorates, but the mine-clearance situation and continued Lebanon fighting mean that relief remains contingent on diplomacy neither side has yet delivered. The window for governments to claim a durable energy dividend is narrowing with every day the Switzerland talks produce no joint output.