# TLDR: 2026-09-10 (Day 195) Lead: THE SECOND CHOKEPOINT IS NOW IN PLAY Compiled by a language model from that day's archived articles; analysis, not archive record. Page: https://iranwar.liminallayers.com/bulletins/tldr-2026-09-10/ Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); sources remain their publishers'. ## OVERVIEW The Houthis have taken the port of Mocha and are now roughly 50 miles from the narrowest point of the Bab al-Mandab, the Red Sea gateway Saudi Arabia has been using to route its oil around a closed Hormuz. Brent jumped another 6 percent to about $107, and the IAEA board referred Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in two decades. Trump says the war ends right after the November midterms. His own vice president and secretary of state reportedly warned him it could run to 2029. ## THE SECOND CHOKEPOINT IS NOW IN PLAY Houthi forces claim Mocha, the city of Hays and the largest military base in the region, with the government commander on the west coast admitting a "strategic retreat" [1]. About 50 miles south is Perim Island, at the point where the Bab al-Mandab narrows to 12 miles [8]. Since Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia has shipped its oil out through the Red Sea instead [8], and on Wednesday 28 commodity vessels used the Bab al-Mandab against just seven through Hormuz [3]. The workaround route is the one now under threat. ## DID TEHRAN ORDER THE ATTACKS ON SAUDI ARABIA Pakistan passed Iran a Saudi warning to rein in the Houthis, and a senior Iranian official answered that "Iran does not control the Houthis" [11]. Two Iranian sources then told Reuters that Tehran instructed the Houthis last week to strike Saudi Arabia, promised funding and weapons, and sent IRGC commanders to Yemen to coordinate [11]. That is anonymous sourcing, so hold it loosely, but it matches what Yemen's government commander says about the offensive being planned by Iran [1]. Meanwhile the IRGC says its restricted maritime zone now reaches from Chabahar into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea [16]. ## IRAN REFERRED TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2006 The IAEA board voted at least 23 to 3 to report Iran for non-compliance, with Russia, China and Niger against [9][13]. The agency believes Iran holds around 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for roughly 10 weapons if enriched further [13]. Nothing much will happen at the Council, where Moscow and Beijing hold vetoes and have already called the resolution legally baseless [15]. A Carnegie physicist put the odds of Iran getting a bomb within three years at 50-50 [9], which is not a number anyone should be comfortable with. ## THE DAMAGE REPORTS DO NOT ADD UP CBS says the Iranian missile strike on Jordans Muwaffaq Salti air base left one A-10 with severe wing damage and about eight F-15s lightly damaged, with more than 30 Patriot interceptors fired [5]. A Trump administration official called the same attack "ineffective" [17], and CENTCOM has confirmed nothing [5]. The tanker tally is similarly fuzzy: CENTCOM confirms eight destroyed, Trump says "about nine," and Rubio describes Tuesdays five as four damaged and one sunk [12]. ## OIL AT $107 AND THE MARKET STOPS CALLING IT AN OIL STORY Brent rose about 6 percent, WTI went through $100 and the oil volatility index jumped 16 percent. The revealing part is that gold slipped while silver and copper each fell around 5 percent and the US 10-year yield climbed to 4.92 percent. Industrial metals down, energy up, yields up: that is the market pricing slower growth and stickier inflation at the same time. Trump, for his part, says petrol prices will not fall until after the election [7], and has offered every adult American $5,000 if Republicans win both chambers [6]. ## References 1. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Houthis seize key Yemeni port of Mocha in drive to take control of Red Sea coast 2. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Secret systems used by Israel in mass killings of Gaza civilians revealed in new film 3. [CRD] The Cradle: Hormuz crossings drop to single digits as more vessels go 'dark' 4. [JPM] The Jerusalem Post — Middle East: Iran dodges sanctions using barter system to buy billions of dollars of Chinese goods 5. [RTN] RT (Russia Today): US warplanes damaged in Iranian strike on key airbase, CBS 6. [BBC] BBC News: Trump pledges $5,000 to every adult American if Republicans win November elections 7. [BBM] BBC News — Middle East: Iran war won't end until after crucial November elections, says Trump 8. [CNN] CNN: Exclusive: This small island off Yemen is now a strategic prize in the widening Iran war 9. [CNN] CNN: Cameras disabled, inspectors blocked: Nuclear watchdog asks for help with Iran 10. [YNT] Ynetnews: Trump was warned: Iran war could last until end of his term in 2029 11. [YNT] Ynetnews: Pakistan delivers Saudi warning to Iran: Rein in the Houthis 12. [RTN] RT (Russia Today): Trump vows to hit ‘a lot more’ Iranian tankers 13. [AJE] Al Jazeera: IAEA board refers Iran to UN Security Council over nuclear ‘non-compliance’ 14. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Extremist Israeli minister unveils 1,000 new settlement units after trade sanctions 15. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: Iran, China, Russia reject E3, US drafted res. at IAEA Board 16. [CRD] The Cradle: IRGC expands ‘restricted maritime zone’ to include Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea 17. [AJE] Al Jazeera: What is Jordan’s Al-Azraq base and why is Iran targeting it?