# TLDR: 2026-07-05 (Day 128) Lead: IRAN IS WINNING THE HORMUZ ROUTING WAR WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT Compiled by a language model from that day's archived articles; analysis, not archive record. Page: https://iranwar.liminallayers.com/bulletins/tldr-2026-07-05/ Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); sources remain their publishers'. ## OVERVIEW The Khamenei funeral is providing cover for two developments that will outlast the mourning week. Iran is winning the Hormuz routing contest without firing a shot, and the fee architecture to formalize that control is already being announced publicly in Beijing. Meanwhile, Mojtaba Khamenei skipped the most politically visible moment of his life, which tells you something, and nobody in Tehran is saying what. ## IRAN IS WINNING THE HORMUZ ROUTING WAR WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT The Western strategy since the ceasefire has been to normalize shipping through an Omani southern corridor, gradually eroding Iran's leverage over the strait. That strategy is collapsing. Eight vessels attempted the route in the past 48 hours and turned back. Two switched to the Iranian-designated lane after IRGC radio warnings alone. Four retreated into the Gulf entirely [5] [6]. Iran's ambassador to China then made the destination explicit at the World Peace Forum: "service fees" are coming to Hormuz, with preferential rates for Beijing and "friendly" countries [7]. The 60-day free-passage window in the June 15 MoU runs out before any of this becomes a treaty violation. When it expires, this is just the new normal. ## MOJTAJAS ABSENCE FROM HIS FATHERS FUNERAL IS NOW THE STORY His three brothers prayed beside the coffin Sunday. Mojtaba did not appear [1] [2]. The official line is Israeli assassination threat, which is credible given Israel's defense minister has publicly called him "marked for death." But Iran's new supreme leader has issued no public statement since March, his location is unconfirmed by his own government, and the funeral was the obvious moment to change that [11]. He did not take it. The security explanation and the governance-problem explanation are not mutually exclusive. ## HOUTHIS ESCALATE ON TWO FRONTS SIMULTANEOUSLY The Houthis killed 16 Yemeni government troops in Hodeidah governorate using drones, snipers, and mortars in their most lethal ground assault in years [8]. Separately, UKMTO reported a vessel sending a distress signal after being attacked off Hodeidah [6]. The ceasefire between the US and Iran does not cover Yemen's internal war, and the combination of resumed ground offensives and maritime harassment is a reminder that the southern Red Sea has not stabilized. The Houthis are not sitting this period out. ## ISRAEL CONFIRMS IT DEPLOYED IRON DOME TO THE UAE Transportation Minister Miri Regev confirmed for the first time that Israel deployed an Iron Dome battery and IDF troops to the UAE during the conflict [12]. The detail that deserves more attention: Iran fired several hundred more ballistic and cruise missiles at the UAE than at Israel, plus thousands of drones [12]. Most were intercepted, but some hit military and civilian targets. That targeting distribution tells you something about Iranian operational priorities that Western coverage has largely glossed over. ## RESISTANCE FACTIONS MEET ARAGHCHI, POSITIONS HARDEN Hezbollah and Hamas leadership met Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi on the funeral sidelines [3] [10]. Araghchi told the Hezbollah delegation Iran is "seriously pursuing" Article 1 of the MoU, which requires Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon [10]. Israel has publicly said it will stay in southern Lebanon regardless. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, meeting Hamas separately, described MoU implementation as "difficult but possible" and said diplomacy must consolidate "the achievements of resistance forces" [3]. That is not the language of a side that thinks it lost the war. ## References 1. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Sons of Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei attend funeral, but Mojtaba is absent 2. [BBC] BBC News: Iran's supreme leader absent as senior officials attend ayatollah's funeral 3. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Iranian parliament speaker says implementing memorandum ‘difficult but possible’ 4. [TOI] The Times of Israel: In first, government vows to disobey High Court ruling, setting up constitutional crisis 5. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: Ships use Iran-desingated route in Hormuz Strait 6. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral 7. [CRD] The Cradle: Iran to grant China, 'friendly' countries 'special consideration' on Hormuz fees 8. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Houthi rebels kill 16 Yemeni government troops in fiercest clashes in years 9. [JPM] The Jerusalem Post — Middle East: Iran to pursue legal action against Israel, US over Khamenei assassination, official says - report 10. [CRD] The Cradle: Regional resistance factions meet with Iran FM on sidelines of Khamenei’s funeral 11. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Calls for killing of Trump at funeral of Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei 12. [JPO] The Jerusalem Post: Israel sent Iron Dome system, team to UAE during recent Iran war, Miri Regev confirms 13. [BBC] BBC News: How Iran's new regime is very different to what came before