# TLDR: 2026-06-25 (Day 118) Lead: IRAN KILLS THE HORMUZ EVACUATION PLAN Compiled by a language model from that day's archived articles; analysis, not archive record. Page: https://iranwar.liminallayers.com/bulletins/tldr-2026-06-25/ Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); sources remain their publishers'. ## OVERVIEW The IRGC torpedoed a UN-Omani shipping evacuation plan within hours of its announcement, making clear that Hormuz is "open" on Iranian terms only, not international ones. Oil briefly touched pre-war levels anyway, which tells you markets got ahead of themselves. Simultaneously, the Israel-Lebanon talks effectively collapsed, Trump asked Congress for $87.6 billion to keep the war running, and four Republican senators have already voted to end it. ## IRAN KILLS THE HORMUZ EVACUATION PLAN The IMO and Oman jointly proposed two exit corridors for the hundreds of ships still stuck in the Gulf. The IRGC rejected both immediately, calling them "unacceptable and completely dangerous" and warning that any vessel moving outside IRGC-approved routes faces enforcement action [2] [4]. The reveal here is that Oman issued the coordinates without Iranian sign-off, and Tehran publicly humiliated that process the moment it surfaced [2]. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator, spelled out the endgame: "the administration of the Strait of Hormuz will never go back to the way it was before the war" [2]. The 60-day toll-free MOU window is technically intact, but Iran is already demonstrating it controls the dial. ## ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS COLLAPSE IN ALL BUT NAME Round five of US-led negotiations was described by sources on both sides as the worst yet, "tense and negative" throughout [1] [10]. The shared grievance: Washington inserted Lebanon into the Iran MOU without asking either party, and both are furious for opposite reasons. Israel sees an Iranian veto over its military conduct; Lebanon sees Iran treated as the authority over Lebanese soil [10]. Neither reading is wrong. Israeli Defence Minister Katz then declared Israeli forces will not leave Lebanon "even if there is an American demand" and that 200,000 displaced Lebanese civilians "will not return" [1]. The State Department had publicly claimed Israel was scaling back its presence as a good-faith gesture. Israeli and Lebanese military sources both said no withdrawal orders exist [1]. That is a significant gap between what Washington said and what its ally's army confirmed on the record. ## IRGC QUDS FORCE CHIEF THREATENS ISRAEL OVER LEBANON Esmail Qaani used Ashura to tell Israeli forces to "leave all of Lebanon" or be "forced to flee in humiliation and defeat," invoking the 2000 withdrawal and Nasrallah's legacy [5]. The timing on a Shia holy day of resistance was not accidental. The pattern is coordinated: Qaani issues the public threat while Hezbollah simultaneously releases statements documenting Israeli ceasefire violations and emphasizing its own restraint [5]. Iran is building a public record of Israeli provocations while keeping Hezbollah's hands visibly clean. That is preparation for something, whether escalation or a stronger negotiating hand on Lebanon is the open question. ## TRUMP ASKS FOR $87.6 BILLION AS REPUBLICAN SUPPORT FRAYS The breakdown is $67 billion for the Pentagon, including $21 billion for munitions resupply and $17.3 billion for operational costs [9]. This lands one day after the Senate passed a war powers resolution rebuking the conflict 50-48, with four Republicans crossing the aisle [14]. Senator Cassidy's summary of his shouting match with Trump: "This was supposed to last four weeks, it's lasted four months. Our original objectives have not been achieved" [9]. That is quietly the Republican establishment consensus right now. The Senate that just voted to end the war is the same Senate that has to fund it, and watch for appropriators attaching progress benchmarks as conditions on disbursement. ## ITALY DISTANCES ITSELF, GULF STATES MOVE TO BUILD THEIR OWN FRAMEWORK Italian Foreign Minister Tajani called Iranian counterpart Araghchi directly to deny that US aircraft used Italian bases to strike Iran [3]. The call was proactive, not reactive: Rome is worried about its exposure after NATO Secretary-General Rutte claimed European allies supported the strikes, which Tehran used to accuse NATO of complicity in an "unlawful war of aggression" [3] [8]. Separately, Saudi Arabia is moving to host a Gulf-Iran reconciliation summit (no date set), and Qatar's PM visited Muscat this week for Hormuz governance talks [6]. Gulf states are building their own diplomatic architecture in parallel to the US-Iran bilateral process because they do not fully trust Washington to protect their interests. The IRGC's route rejection will have landed badly in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, both of which depend on strait passage for their own exports. ## References 1. [CRD] The Cradle: Netanyahu ‘convinces’ Trump to back Israeli occupation of south Lebanon: Report 2. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Iran rejects UN-backed plan to free ships trapped in strait of Hormuz 3. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: Italy rejects NATO chief claim on assisting US against Iran 4. [AJE] Al Jazeera: IRGC warns against new Hormuz route for ships: What we know 5. [CRD] The Cradle: ‘Leave Lebanon now or flee in defeat’: IRGC Quds Force chief issues new warning to Israel 6. [CRD] The Cradle: Saudi Arabia to host Gulf - Iran 'reconciliation summit' 7. [BBC] BBC News: Oil price falls back to pre-Iran war levels 8. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Iran war day 118: IRGC rejects new Hormuz route; Rubio to meet GCC leaders 9. [BBC] BBC News: Trump asks Congress for $87bn, mostly for 'urgent' Iran war costs 10. [TOI] The Times of Israel: Current round of US-led talks between Israel, Lebanon the least productive yet, sources 11. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: US removes 28 refueling aircraft from Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport: Israeli media 12. [PTV] Press TV: Mission unaccomplished, Part I: America failed to achieve every war objective against Iran 13. [APW] Associated Press: UN nuclear agency boss signals that inspectors will visit Iran's nuclear sites 14. [ABC] ABC News Australia: Breaking: US Senate calls for Trump to end Iran war in bipartisan vote