# SITREP: 2026-09-13 (Day 198) Lead: TWO SHIPS HIT IN HORMUZ THE DAY BEFORE IRAN'S BIG MEETING Compiled by a language model from that day's archived articles; analysis, not archive record. Page: https://iranwar.liminallayers.com/bulletins/sitrep-2026-09-13/ Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); sources remain their publishers'. ## OVERVIEW An Iranian commercial ship was hit near Qeshm Island early Sunday, killing one crew member, and a second vessel was struck by a projectile in the strait hours later. Both happened on the eve of the Gulf meeting in Oman where Iran plans to unveil its new Hormuz route, a meeting Bahrain has now refused to attend. Trump says the Houthis phoned Washington asking it to stay out of their fight with Saudi Arabia, which is exactly the deal they want. And CNN's reporting on the fall of Mocha has produced the most damning line of the week: the Yemeni army defending it was about 20 percent real. ## Lead story: TWO SHIPS HIT IN HORMUZ THE DAY BEFORE IRAN'S BIG MEETING Iranian state media says a commercial vessel was struck near Qeshm Island at about 5am local time on Sunday, killing one person and injuring four [2][7]. The governor of Qeshm blamed the "American-Zionist enemy" [7]. Several explosions were reported around Qeshm overnight [11]. The US military has not commented, though it has struck Iranian-flagged vessels before as part of its blockade [2][11]. Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported another ship hit by a projectile while transiting the strait, with a fire on board and crew being evacuated [2][11]. Its flag was not given. Traffic through Hormuz is running roughly 90 percent below pre-war levels, against the 20 million barrels a day that used to pass through [2]. The timing matters because of what happens on Monday. Foreign ministers from Iran, Iraq and five Gulf states are due in Oman, in the coastal city of Salalah according to Araghchi and in Muscat according to Iran's own foreign ministry, which tells you how fluid this is. There Tehran intends to present the Iran-Oman agreement on a new maritime route, complete with maps and a joint statement, and then lodge it with the International Maritime Organization [3]. Here is the part that deflates the headline. Araghchi says the deal "by no means" signifies the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. It sets out entry and exit routes that "would be used if conditions are created" for reopening, and Iran's condition remains the same: the US returns to the Islamabad memorandum, ends the blockade and stops attacking [3]. Pezeshkian put it the same way to India Today: the waterway opens when Washington ends the blockade [2]. A senior Iranian official told Reuters no signed agreement is actually expected from the meeting [15]. So the meeting is not a reopening. It is Iran getting regional states into a room to be briefed on a corridor that Iran and Oman will manage, then taking that to a UN agency for registration. That is a claim of legitimacy, not a concession. Bahrain is not playing. Manama said it will not attend, that regional security "cannot be preserved through a policy of appeasement," and that Hormuz should be open without "discrimination, fees or permits" [15]. It also said it will not join any collective meeting including Iran before diplomatic relations are restored, which have been severed since 2016 [15]. That last clause is the tell: the objection is partly about Iranian transit fees and partly about not legitimising Tehran's role at all. Iran's framing is friendlier. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei called the meeting "a sign of Iran's good intention," adding that regional security must be guaranteed by regional countries "without intervention by the outside powers," even though those neighbours' territory and US bases on it were used to attack Iran [15]. Read the two positions together and you have the actual negotiation. Iran wants the Gulf states to accept that it, with Oman, administers the strait. The Gulf states want the strait treated as international water with no permits and no fees. Monday will show how many of the seven are willing to sit through the first version. ## ALSO NOTABLE - **The army that lost Mocha was largely fictional.** A Western source with knowledge of anti-Houthi operations told CNN that Yemeni battalions in Mocha were filled with "ghost names," soldiers who drew salaries but did not exist, leaving the force at roughly 20 percent of its paper strength [6]. One regional source called the collapse "a Saudi-American f*** up of epic proportions," saying there was not a single Saudi airstrike during the day of the attack despite minute-by-minute updates: "The Saudis threw the Yemenis under the bus" [6]. A senior Yemeni official says he warned CENTCOM repeatedly that the situation was critical [6]. Analyst Mohammed al-Basha points instead at the anti-Houthi coalition's own incoherence: "There's no united command and control in Yemen" [6]. - **The Houthis called Washington to ask it to stay out.** "The Houthis called us, and they don't want to fight with us," Trump said in Ireland, adding they "would much prefer not having us involved" [13]. He also said the group is letting most shipping through the Red Sea and that "it's just one country that they're not too happy with" [13]. Houthi spokesman Mohammed al-Bukhaiti told RT they target only "the Saudi enemy" and are committed to protecting navigation, while warning Yemen could fight "up to three fronts" if outsiders join Riyadh [13]. A group that can offer Washington safe passage while strangling one specific country has found real leverage. - **Saudi Arabia is running out of non-terrible options.** Riyadh does not want an all-out war but may be dragged into one, analysts told CNN, with Yemen specialist Mohammed Al-Basha saying all signs "point to a large-scale Saudi retaliation, and that likelihood is increasing by the day" [1]. The Houthis' price is unchanged: lift the blockade on the north. Their news agency chief says they will keep "pressuring" Riyadh until they "break the siege unjustly imposed by the Saudi enemy for 12 years" [1]. A Saudi official told CNN last month the kingdom was bracing for "multiple coordinated attacks" by Iraqi militias working with the Houthis, which is roughly what the past week has looked like [1]. More than 45,000 Yemenis have fled the fighting, many with nothing: "We took only the clothes we were wearing" [14]. - **Iranian lawmakers are pushing to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty.** A group of MPs has signed a three-urgency plan to withdraw from the treaty, and the spokesman for parliament's presiding board said leaving and revising Iran's nuclear doctrine is "a completely achievable and readily attainable step," because "only the logic of power works with the United States" [9]. Parliament is not the decision-maker here, but this is the first concrete legislative move since the IAEA board referred Iran to the Security Council last week. Meanwhile Rosatom says 47 Russian specialists have returned to the Bushehr plant and it plans to raise that to 150 [8]. - **Hegseth's office pushed the rescued F-15 crew onto "60 Minutes."** Political appointees in the defence secretary's office were adamant that both airmen shot down over Iran in April sit for interviews, though both had reservations and military officials worried about classified details, according to CNN's sources [17]. Hegseth met the pair privately; one agreed, one refused [17]. The Pentagon's chief spokesman called the story "a complete lie" and said the decision was each pilot's alone [17]. Either way, it shows how hard the department is working to shape the story of a war that polls badly. ## MARKETS & MONEY Markets are closed, so Friday's numbers still stand: Brent near $104.60 after a week that touched $108 at one point, according to Indian officials at the BRICS summit [10], and the Oil Volatility Index parked near 59. The BRICS bloc did put out a line on energy, with India's foreign secretary saying members agreed they "have to work together to maintain smooth flow of global trade, supply chains, and energy supplies" [10]. No mechanism, no commitments, but the world's largest oil buyers saying supply must keep moving is at least a signal that the demand side is getting nervous. The real open question for Monday is whether the East-West pipeline outage and two more ships hit in Hormuz outweigh the possibility of a Gulf agreement on shipping routes. Traders will be pricing a meeting that Iran has already said will not reopen anything. ## WESTERN IMPACTS Trump's answer to pump prices is to build refineries, and the industry is politely explaining why that will not work. No significant new US refinery has been built since 1977, there are half as many as in 1982, and even a construction boom starting tomorrow would take years [5]. Oil companies will not commit billions on the assumption that this disruption lasts: "What's the Strait of Hormuz going to look like in four to five years?" one analyst asked [5]. The more useful diagnosis is that this is a refining crisis, not just a crude crisis. ExxonMobil's chief executive says that after 35 years of excess refining capacity, "now we have a refinery constraint," so pump prices are being set by product supply rather than crude [5]. Roughly two million barrels a day of refined supply has been lost between Russia and the Middle East [5]. That is why diesel keeps setting records even on days when crude falls. BRICS, for its part, could not agree on much. The New Delhi declaration urged "maximum restraint" and condemned attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities while assigning blame to nobody [4]. Modi told members to be "rule-shapers, not rule-takers"; he also insisted the group is "not against anyone" [4]. Note who was in the room: Iran's president and the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, a country Iran has been firing missiles at [4]. ## WHAT TO WATCH 1. **Monday in Salalah, and the attendance list.** Iran says seven countries will be there after Bahrain's refusal [3][15]. Watch whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE send their foreign ministers or someone more junior, whether the Iran-Oman maps actually reach the International Maritime Organization, and whether the words "fees" or "permits" appear anywhere in the documents [3][15]. 2. **A large-scale Saudi retaliation.** Analysts now expect one, and the Houthis have already told Washington they would rather fight Riyadh alone [1][13]. Watch for Saudi strikes beyond Yemen's west coast, particularly on Sanaa or Hodeidah port, and whether Pakistan or Turkey are asked for anything under the Mecca pact. 3. **The NPT withdrawal bill.** A three-urgency motion in Iran's parliament is a procedural signal, not a policy [9]. But if the leadership lets it advance, it becomes the clearest response yet to the Security Council referral, and it would remove the last formal framework anyone has for knowing what Iran is doing with its uranium. ## References 1. [CNN] CNN: The Saudis have few options against the surging Houthis and none are good ones 2. [CNN] CNN: Iran reports commercial vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz 3. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Iran says Monday’s meeting in Oman to focus on new maritime route in Strait of Hormuz 4. [BBC] BBC News: Iran war reshapes Brics ties but also exposes divisions 5. [CNN] CNN: Why Trump’s effort to build more refineries won’t lower gas prices 6. [JPO] The Jerusalem Post: Yemeni army rosters filled with 'ghost names,' leaving Mocha vulnerable to Houthi takeover - report 7. [TSN] Tasnim News Agency: One Killed As Projectile Hits Ship in Southern Iran 8. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: Russia expands nuclear team at Iran's Bushehr plant 9. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: Iran can easily withdraw from NPT, revise nuclear doctrine 10. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: BRICS agrees to safeguard energy flows as oil prices soar 11. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Houthis claim attack on Saudi base as fighting flares with Yemeni forces 12. [YNT] Ynetnews: Houthis accused of using AI to fake Yemeni general’s retreat order during Mocha offensive 13. [RTN] RT (Russia Today): Houthis asked US to stay out of Saudi fight, Trump (VIDEOS) 14. [YNT] Ynetnews: ‘We took only the clothes we wore’: Tens of thousands flee Houthi-held areas in Yemen 15. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Bahrain says it will not participate in Iran’s proposed Hormuz meeting 16. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Iraq probes drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, shuts three crossings to Iran 17. [CNN] CNN: Exclusive: Inside Hegseth’s push to showcase a dramatic Iran rescue on ‘60 Minutes’