# SITREP: 2026-09-11 (Day 196) Lead: WITH PERIM ISLAND, BOTH GATES ARE NOW IN THE SAME HANDS Compiled by a language model from that day's archived articles; analysis, not archive record. Page: https://iranwar.liminallayers.com/bulletins/sitrep-2026-09-11/ Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); sources remain their publishers'. ## OVERVIEW The Houthis have taken Perim Island and the coastal town of Dhubab, which together give them the southern gate of the Red Sea. For the first time in this war, Iran and its closest ally sit astride both of the region's shipping chokepoints at once. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump twice on Thursday asking for US strikes on the Houthis and was refused, though more than 100 US advisers are already helping Riyadh pick targets. The European Central Bank raised rates and said plainly that this war is now an inflation problem, with European gas at three-year highs and UK borrowing costs at levels last seen in 2007. ## Lead story: WITH PERIM ISLAND, BOTH GATES ARE NOW IN THE SAME HANDS Perim, known in Arabic as Mayun, is a barren volcanic rock that splits the Bab al-Mandab into two channels near its narrowest point. On Friday, Houthi fighters took it after government-aligned forces left, along with the coastal city of Dhubab [2][6]. A Yemeni government military source told Anadolu the takeover "means the group has completed its control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait" [6]. Neither the Houthis nor the government had formally confirmed it hours later, so treat the map as fast-moving. The scale of the collapse is what stands out. In a week the Houthis have taken the whole of Al-Hudaydah province, the port of Mocha, Dhubab and now Perim, with Reuters sources placing them on the Hanish Islands and AFP reporting the seizure of Zuqar [6][13]. Government forces have made gains in the north, near Al-Hazm in Al-Jawf, but that is not where the shipping lanes are [6]. Roughly 12 percent of the world's traded goods normally pass through the Bab al-Mandab, and Saudi Arabia has been leaning on that route to export crude ever since Iran made Hormuz unusable [2]. Both of the exits from the Gulf region are now controlled or contested by Tehran and its closest ally. That is the single most important change of the past week. Sanaa is going out of its way to say the strait stays open. The Sanaa government's deputy foreign minister said "maritime navigation is safe," and spokesman Mohammad Abdul Salam said Red Sea navigation is safe and that "operations will cease when the aggression ends" [13]. Read that as the point of the exercise: the Houthis want the ability to close the strait recognised, not necessarily exercised. Iran publicly hailed the advances on Friday, its first extended comment on the fighting [2]. Washington's answer is a careful one. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump twice on Thursday asking for US strikes on the Houthis, and Trump said no both times, according to Axios [8]. The administration's stated logic is to keep American forces focused on Iran and Hormuz rather than open a second front [8]. What it will do instead is share intelligence and targeting information, and CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper flew to Saudi Arabia on Thursday for urgent coordination [8]. That line is thinner than it sounds. CNN reports more than 100 US military advisers, and by one official's count roughly 200 troops, are already on the ground in Saudi Arabia inside a newly created joint forces command, feeding Riyadh real-time battlefield picture through a Maven-style targeting tool and providing geospatial targeting support [14]. The US is not flying the strikes or refuelling the jets [14]. It is helping choose what gets hit. Anyone who remembers the last decade of US targeting support in Yemen knows how that distinction has tended to age. Meanwhile, the diplomacy has a date. Gulf foreign ministers are due to meet Iran's Abbas Araghchi in Salalah, Oman, on Monday to discuss the temporary Iran-Oman managed route through Hormuz [7][2]. Iran walks into that room having just watched its ally take the other chokepoint. The timing is not an accident. ## ALSO NOTABLE - **Israel detonated 1,100 tons of explosives under southern Lebanon.** The Israeli military destroyed a Hezbollah tunnel complex beneath the Ali al-Taher ridge, a network of more than two kilometres that it says held the command centre of Hezbollah's Badr unit [1][4]. The blast registered as a magnitude 4.1 earthquake on US Geological Survey instruments, and was felt 40km away in Saida [4]. "The sky lit up and about 15 seconds later we heard the terrifying sound," a resident of Nabatieh told the BBC [4]. Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz say this completes their "security zone" in southern Lebanon [1]. An Israeli official told Maariv that around 50 Hezbollah fighters were underground when the operation began and refused an offer to surrender [1]. Iran reportedly warned Washington last month that it would respond forcefully if the attacks on the ridge continued [1]. - **The US Navy admits Iran wrecked its Bahrain headquarters.** "They blew the hell out of Bahrain," acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said of the Naval Support Activity base, home of the Fifth Fleet, adding that a task force is now deciding whether to repair it at all [5]. The Navy's top uniformed officer says the base will not resume service "anytime soon" [5]. Damage there left the USS Abraham Lincoln with "no place for them to pull in" during a nine-month deployment that has produced a crew mental health crisis [5]. Araghchi's response was one line long: "We appreciate the candor of Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao" [5]. - **Iran has restarted ballistic missile production underground.** The Wall Street Journal reports Tehran is assembling both liquid and solid-propellant missiles from components stockpiled before the war, with activity detected at several underground sites including the Khojir complex, and new assembly sites being dug to make future strikes harder [16]. Output is well below pre-war levels [16]. It still undercuts Pete Hegseth's April claim that Iran's missile programme was "functionally destroyed" with "no ability to replenish" [16]. Netanyahu, at the Western Wall before Rosh Hashanah, promised that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon "as long as I am prime minister" [16]. - **Iran's president says out loud that he does not want the war to continue.** "I am not in favour of continuing the war, but we must strengthen the country's resilience in the face of upcoming developments," Masoud Pezeshkian told university heads on Friday, arguing Iran must not be forced to negotiate from weakness [3]. He also told students to bring solutions "instead of engaging in protests," which tells you what the government is worried about domestically [3]. He then flew to New Delhi for the BRICS summit, which he described as a vehicle for reducing dollar dependence and countering unilateralism [9]. - **NATO will not be clearing the mines.** Secretary-General Mark Rutte said demining in Hormuz "is not a NATO mission" because the strait lies outside alliance territory, while praising a Franco-British initiative and contributions from members including Latvia and Lithuania [12]. Individual European navies are helping the US. The alliance itself is staying formally out, at the same moment Washington is pressing Europe to carry more of its own conventional defence [12]. ## MARKETS & MONEY The European Central Bank made it official: this war is now a monetary problem. It raised its main rate to 2.5 percent, lifted its inflation forecast to 3 percent for the year, and Christine Lagarde said "we believe inflation will be longer lasting than we had anticipated" [17]. The bond market reaction is the number to watch. UK 10-year gilt yields hit 5.36 percent, the highest since August 2007, Germany's 30-year yield reached its highest since 2003 and France's 10-year its highest since 2008 [17]. US long-term borrowing costs are also at multi-decade highs [15]. The US 10-year sits just under 5 percent. Gas is the quieter emergency. Dutch wholesale gas passed €80 per megawatt hour for the first time since January 2023, UK gas went above 203p a therm, and EU storage is only 67 percent full against a five-year average of 84 percent going into winter [17]. Brent is sitting around $104.60, off Thursday's $105 peak, but the Oil Volatility Index is still near 59, roughly a third above where it sat a week ago. Traders are not calming down. Tanker stocks kept climbing, while defence names slipped again. ## WESTERN IMPACTS British households are about to feel this twice. Wholesale gas above 200p a therm is the highest since the end of 2022, and Ofgem's price cap is already set to rise 3.6 percent in October with another review in January [15]. Meanwhile gilt yields at 2007 highs feed directly into fixed-rate mortgage pricing [15]. The White House's answer to pump prices is Venezuela. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that the 30-minute January operation that removed Nicolás Maduro has cleared the way for Venezuelan output to more than double by the end of 2027, with Chevron investing more than $7bn and lifting production to 600,000 barrels a day [10]. Venezuela holds roughly 20 percent of the world's crude reserves but produces about 1 percent of global output [10]. Even on the administration's own numbers, those barrels arrive years after this winter's bills. One more thing Europeans should notice: NATO is not mine-clearing Hormuz, so the cost and risk of keeping that waterway navigable falls on individual national navies, principally Britain and France [12]. ## WHAT TO WATCH 1. **Monday's Gulf meeting in Salalah.** Gulf foreign ministers and Araghchi are expected to discuss the Iran-Oman temporary transit arrangement [7][2]. Watch whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE sign up to a route that Iran effectively manages. Agreeing would be a tacit recognition of Iranian control of Hormuz. Refusing leaves the strait as it is, which currently means seven or eight ships a day [7]. 2. **Whether "navigation is safe" survives contact with the first tanker.** The Houthis say the Red Sea stays open [13]. The test is the first Saudi-linked cargo that tries to pass Perim, and whether insurers believe the assurance. Watch also whether Aden comes under pressure, since Western capitals are reportedly worried the government's capital itself could fall [2]. 3. **Iran's promised response to Ali al-Taher.** Tehran warned the US last month that continued Israeli attacks on the ridge would draw a forceful answer [1]. Israel has now levelled it during Rosh Hashanah with its forces still holding around 5 percent of Lebanese territory [4]. If Iran intends to make good on that warning, the next 48 hours are when it would be loudest. ## References 1. [CRD] The Cradle: Israel uses 1,100 tons of explosives to destroy resistance 'nerve center' beneath Ali al-Taher ridge 2. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Iran’s Houthi allies capture strategic island on vital oil shipping route 3. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Iranian president says he does not support continued war, urges strengthening country’s resilience 4. [BBC] BBC News: Israel says it has destroyed major underground Hezbollah base 5. [AJE] Al Jazeera: ‘Blew the hell out of it’: How Iran damaged US bases in Bahrain, Jordan 6. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Houthis seize strategic Perim Island in Bab el-Mandab Strait, Dhubab city 7. [JPO] The Jerusalem Post: Gulf foreign ministers to meet with Iranian FM in push to secure deal for Strait of Hormuz - report 8. [YNT] Ynetnews: Trump rebuffs Saudi pleas for strikes as Houthis surge, report says 9. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: Pezeshkian terms BRICS a tool against US pressure 10. [FOX] Fox News: Top Trump official reveals how 30-minute military op unlocked Venezuela oil windfall for US buyers 11. [RTN] RT (Russia Today): Iran destroys US spy Saildrone in Hormuz (VIDEO) 12. [CRD] The Cradle: NATO chief says Hormuz mine clearance 'not a NATO mission' 13. [CRD] The Cradle: Yemeni army storms Red Sea islands, captures Bab al-Mandab Strait 14. [CNN] CNN: EXCLUSIVE: US expands intel, targeting support for Saudi campaign against Iranian ally 15. [BBC] BBC News: Oil, gas and borrowing costs surge as fears over Middle East escalate 16. [YNT] Ynetnews: Netanyahu: Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear weapons capability 17. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: ECB raises interest rates to 2.5% and warns Iran war is fuelling inflation