# SITREP: 2026-07-09 (Day 132) Lead: THE IRGC IS NOW FIGHTING TWO WARS SIMULTANEOUSLY Compiled by a language model from that day's archived articles; analysis, not archive record. Page: https://iranwar.liminallayers.com/bulletins/sitrep-2026-07-09/ Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); sources remain their publishers'. ## OVERVIEW The US struck roughly 90 more Iranian targets overnight, including two railway bridges leading to Mashhad, and Iran responded by firing ballistic missiles at US military facilities in Jordan and Kuwait, sounding air raid sirens across Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan simultaneously. The Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed again: only 14 commodity vessels crossed on Wednesday, the lowest count since the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU). Qatar has paused efforts to revive its liquefied natural gas (LNG) output at Ras Laffan. And inside Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appears to be actively trying to oust the civilian government that signed the MoU in the first place. ## Lead story: THE IRGC IS NOW FIGHTING TWO WARS SIMULTANEOUSLY The most important development today is not the strikes. It is what is happening inside Iran. Multiple diplomatic sources told Israel Hayom that IRGC commanders have been levelling accusations of treason against President Masoud Pezeshkian's government, claiming the civilian leadership concealed key negotiating terms from senior military officials [5]. The specific grievances: the political team gave up on transit fees in Hormuz and on uranium enrichment on Iranian soil without IRGC consent, and withheld details of the MoU from Guard commanders who say they never agreed to be bound by it [5]. This is not a rumour. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was physically attacked during Khamenei's funeral procession, a stone thrown at him with enough force that it could have been lethal [5]. The sources cited say IRGC personnel were behind the mob. And Araghchi himself has been privately telling Qatari and Pakistani mediators that the civilian government simply cannot control the Guards and cannot deliver what it signed [5]. That confession explains everything that has happened since June 17. The tanker strikes that broke the ceasefire were not authorised by Pezeshkian. The MoU was not defied by the civilian government. It was defied by a parallel military power structure that never accepted it. When Araghchi told the Qatari prime minister he could not explain why the IRGC shot at a Qatari LNG carrier during active negotiations, he was not being evasive. He was telling the truth [5]. The implications are significant. The US has been trying to negotiate with the wrong people, or at least with people who cannot deliver. The IRGC controls the missiles, the drones, and the naval assets. The civilian government controls the foreign ministry. Those two centres of power are now openly in conflict, and sources say the Guards may move to formally oust Pezeshkian's government entirely [5]. Washington and Israel are reportedly examining whether this internal rupture creates conditions to accelerate regime change, and whether restoring the full economic siege quickly would help tip the balance [5]. That analysis is still early-stage. But the logic is cold and clear: if the IRGC is already on the verge of a coup against the faction that signed the MoU, then maximum economic pressure might not be destabilising a functioning government. It might be pushing on a door that is already open. The risk in that logic is equally clear. A government in Tehran run openly by the IRGC, with no civilian cover and no negotiating mandate, would have no political incentive to de-escalate anything. ## ALSO NOTABLE - **Jordan is now an active strike target.** The IRGC fired 10 ballistic missiles at US facilities in Jordan, specifically targeting the command and control centre and Al Azraq Air Base [6]. Jordan intercepted eight missiles and reported no damage, but air raid sirens sounded across the country for the first time in months [9]. Jordan has been quietly hosting US military operations throughout this conflict. That cover is gone. The IRGC explicitly warned that any country hosting US forces is a legitimate target [6], and it just demonstrated it means it. - **Qatar has paused its LNG output revival at Ras Laffan.** After the IRGC struck the Al Rekayyat LNG tanker on Tuesday, QatarEnergy CEO Saad Al-Kaabi ordered operations held at minimum levels and reduced the number of vessels scheduled to dock [7]. European benchmark gas prices crossed 50 euros per megawatt-hour on Thursday for the first time since the MoU was signed, and Asian LNG spot prices are now more than 80 percent above pre-war levels [7]. This is the most consequential energy-sector consequence of the renewed escalation so far. Qatar was supposed to be the emergency global LNG supplier while Hormuz was disrupted. It is now too scared to load its own tankers. - **US strikes hit the rail bridge on the China-Turkmenistan-Iran corridor**, the route through which freight from China to Iran has tripled since the naval blockade began [9]. Iran called the targeting of two Mashhad-bound bridges a war crime because they were struck during Khamenei's funeral. But the strategic logic is separate from the timing controversy: Washington just hit Iran's overland trade lifeline to China and Russia, not just its maritime chokepoints. That is a deliberate escalation of the economic strangulation campaign. - **France is now formally positioning Syria as an energy corridor**, with Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot describing Syria as a potential "new regional hub" for Gulf oil to reach European markets via the Mediterranean [2]. This follows Macron's Damascus visit and the signing of diplomatic restoration agreements. TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne accompanied Macron and has signed a memorandum of understanding for Mediterranean exploration [2]. Iraq has already been trucking over 600,000 tons of fuel oil through Syria since April to bypass Hormuz [2]. France is essentially trying to institutionalise an energy architecture that routes around both the strait and the conflict. - **Iraq and Turkey are finalising a one-year extension of the Kirkuk-to-Ceyhan pipeline agreement** ahead of its July 27 expiry [1]. This matters because it locks in the overland alternative to Hormuz for Iraqi crude, which funds 90 percent of Baghdad's national budget [1]. Iraq's government has been simultaneously trucking oil through Syria and shipping via Ceyhan, building redundancy that did not exist before February. The economic pressure on Baghdad is severe, but the improvised logistics network it has assembled is more durable than most expected. ## MARKETS & MONEY Here is the genuinely strange thing about today's numbers. Brent dropped from $79.25 to $76.06, a fall of more than 4 percent, on a day when Hormuz transits hit their lowest count since the ceasefire and Qatar paused its LNG revival [11] [7]. That is not irrational. It reflects one specific bet: that the US strikes are degrading Iran's ability to attack shipping, not closing the strait permanently. The oil volatility index (OVX) fell from 50.45 to 46.48, which means options traders are actually less worried about near-term supply disruption than they were yesterday. Markets are pricing "painful but manageable" escalation, not closure. The divergence that should make you cautious: European gas prices crossed 50 euros per megawatt-hour today for the first time since the MoU [7], moving in the opposite direction to oil. Gas markets are pricing Qatar's output pause as a real supply tightening. Oil markets are pricing US military action as a deterrent. Both cannot be fully right. One of them will reprice in the next 48 hours. The Gold/Oil ratio at 57.61 is historically elevated and tells you something oil's spot price alone does not: gold is still pricing systemic risk while oil is pricing a managed episode. That gap has persisted for weeks. Watch for it to close, either because oil catches up or because gold pulls back. ## WESTERN IMPACTS European gas prices breaking 50 euros per megawatt-hour will flow into household energy bills within weeks, not months. Governments that have been pointing to the post-MoU price relief as a policy win are now watching that argument evaporate in real time. Qatar's Ras Laffan pause is the mechanism: Europe has been counting on Qatari LNG as its backup supply throughout this crisis, and QatarEnergy just announced it is not comfortable loading ships into a war zone. The UK in particular is exposed. British Maritime Trade Operations has been running the southern Hormuz corridor that Iran just proved it can shut, and the UK has no spare LNG supply chain to substitute. The EU trade ministers meeting today on Israeli settlement products is likely to be overshadowed by energy emergency discussions that were not on the agenda when the meeting was scheduled. ## WHAT TO WATCH 1. **Whether the IRGC moves against Pezeshkian's government in the next 48 hours.** The sourcing on this comes from diplomatic officials cited by Israel Hayom, so treat it as credible but unconfirmed [5]. Watch for any sign of emergency sessions of Iran's parliament, restrictions on Araghchi's travel or communications, or a public IRGC statement that bypasses the foreign ministry entirely. If the Guards move to formally assert control, the entire US negotiating architecture collapses, because there is no civilian interlocutor left. 2. **Hormuz vessel counts for Thursday and Friday.** Wednesday's count of 14 was the lowest since June 17 [11]. If it stays below 20 for a second consecutive day, the strait is functionally closed again, regardless of what any ceasefire document says. Watch Lloyd's List and Kpler tracking data. A sustained closure reprices everything: oil, gas, tanker rates, and the political viability of every Gulf government that has been quietly cooperating with the US-backed corridor. 3. **Any communication from Witkoff, Kushner, or Qatari mediators about whether a new diplomatic framework is being attempted.** Qatar is in an excruciating position: it is the primary mediator, it hosts the largest US air base in the region, and its flagship LNG tanker was just shot up by the side it has been trying to help. Doha's next move, whether it steps back from mediation, suspends LNG shipments entirely, or doubles down on shuttle diplomacy, will tell you whether there is any diplomatic off-ramp left before this becomes a full resumption of war. ## References 1. [CRD] The Cradle: Iraq, Turkiye extend agreement for oil exports via Ceyhan pipeline 2. [CRD] The Cradle: France eyes Syria as 'vital energy corridor' amid Hormuz crisis 3. [JPO] The Jerusalem Post: Iran retaliates with strikes on US Gulf assets as regional sirens sound 4. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Strait of Hormuz: What has happened since the US-Iran MoU on June 17? 5. [IHY] Israel Hayom: Pezeshkian at risk of ouster as Israel, US explore ways to topple Iran's regime 6. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: IRGC launches missiles against US Command, airbase in Jordan 7. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Qatar pauses LNG output revival after tanker attack near Hormuz: Report 8. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: US and Iran trade most intense strikes since ceasefire extended 9. [YNT] Ynetnews: Sirens sound in Jordan; Iran accuses US of airstrike near Bushehr nuclear power plant 10. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Trump is bombing Iran again and blundering again. He has no grasp of his enemy | Sina Toossi 11. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Hormuz traffic nearly halts as renewed US-Iran strikes rattle energy shipping 12. [APW] Associated Press: Rahm Emanuel will warn Israel-US ties at crossroads in Tel Aviv speech