# SITREP: 2026-05-31 (Day 93) Lead: TRUMP IS REWRITING THE DEAL HIS OWN TEAM NEGOTIATED Compiled by a language model from that day's archived articles; analysis, not archive record. Page: https://iranwar.liminallayers.com/bulletins/sitrep-2026-05-31/ Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); sources remain their publishers'. ## OVERVIEW Trump is still rewriting the Iran deal in real time, demanding tougher terms on uranium disposal and Hormuz language after his own negotiators brought a draft to the finish line. Iran's parliament speaker says Tehran won't commit until it sees "tangible results," and a senior official warned it could take three days just to get a response back through the caves. Meanwhile Israel has dramatically escalated in Lebanon, seizing Beaufort Castle and pushing forces toward Nabatieh in what the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is calling a "large-scale" offensive north of the Litani River. And the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shot down a US MQ-1 Predator drone over the Persian Gulf overnight, keeping the kinetic drumbeat going even as diplomats negotiate. ## Lead story: TRUMP IS REWRITING THE DEAL HIS OWN TEAM NEGOTIATED Here is the thing worth understanding about what happened over the weekend. US negotiators, working through the Pakistani channel and indirect contacts, produced a draft memorandum of understanding. By most accounts, that draft was close enough to finalised that it was waiting on Trump's signature. Trump went into the Situation Room on Friday for his "final determination." He came out having demanded changes. The specific asks, confirmed across Axios and the New York Times [2] [3] [5]: Trump wants tighter language on what happens to Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, specifically "how the US gets the material and the timing" [5]. He also wants amended wording on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The current draft, according to Iranian state media, gives Tehran significant authority over which vessels qualify as commercial traffic and who pays what to transit [9]. That is clearly not what Trump wants to be signing. The uranium issue is the sharper problem. The existing draft reportedly contains a commitment from Iran "not to pursue a nuclear weapon" but no specific concessions beyond that [2]. Trump, publicly and apparently now in writing, wants Iran to hand over or destroy roughly ten warheads' worth of highly enriched uranium that has been buried since the June 2025 strikes [5]. Iran's position, stated by Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei on Friday, is that nuclear issues are not the current priority and the war must end first [10]. Those are not compatible opening positions for a 60-day window of nuclear talks. Trump's public framing is revealing. On Fox News Sunday he said a deal would come "slowly but surely" or the US would "go back and finish it militarily" [5]. He added he was "in no hurry." That might be negotiating posture. It might also be genuine. The problem is that the other side is sitting in caves waiting three days to respond to amendments they did not ask for [3]. Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, freshly re-elected and publicly outspoken, set the tone for Tehran's position on Sunday: "There is no trust in the enemy's words and promises. Our only criterion is to achieve tangible results before we fulfill our commitments in return" [3]. A senior advisor to the new Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rezaei, said Trump is "betraying diplomacy for the third time" and suggested the US is "pursuing other objectives" beyond a deal [11]. A senior US official told Axios the wait "could be a week. It could be less. It could be more" [2]. That phrase is becoming the defining characteristic of this negotiation. ## ALSO NOTABLE - **The IRGC shot down a US MQ-1 Predator drone in Iranian airspace over the Persian Gulf in the early hours of Sunday** [7] [8]. This is confirmed by both Iranian state media (Mehr News and Press TV) and no immediate US denial has been reported in today's sources. Press TV separately reported that the Iranian Army shot down an "Orbiter" drone over Qeshm Island on Saturday [8]. Two drones in two days. The MQ-1 is older and less capable than the MQ-9 Reapers being destroyed elsewhere in this conflict, but every downed US drone is a statement of intent during active ceasefire negotiations, and the IRGC is clearly making one. - **Israel has declared a "large-scale" ground offensive in southern Lebanon, crossed the Litani River with substantial forces, and captured Beaufort Castle**, a crusader-era hilltop fortress with commanding views over northern Israel and the Nabatieh area [4] [6]. One Israeli soldier, Staff Sgt. Michael Tyukin, 21, was killed in a Hezbollah drone strike during the operation [4]. Israeli forces are now operating "in the vicinity of Nabatieh," which the IDF spokesperson called "one of Hezbollah's principal strongholds" [6]. Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said troops would remain at the castle "as part of the security zone in Lebanon" [4], making clear this is not a raid but an occupation. - **France has called an emergency UN Security Council session over Israel's Lebanon operations**, with Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot calling the ongoing military campaign "a major mistake for Israel" and stating that "nothing can justify the prolongation of military operations in Lebanon" [1]. This is notable because France has historically been a key interlocutor with Lebanon and has now moved from private pressure to a formal multilateral challenge. It will not produce binding action given US veto power, but it signals that western European tolerance for the Lebanon campaign is running out publicly, not just privately. - **According to Israel Hayom, the US Navy escorted dozens of Qatari oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week**, after Iran approved the passages and in some cases received payment [5]. This is a single Israeli source citing three unnamed diplomatic and intelligence contacts, so treat it with appropriate caution. But if accurate, it means the blockade is already being selectively suspended through bilateral arrangements, and Trump's "the blockade is very much still in place" framing is at minimum incomplete. It would also explain why oil markets have been falling despite an unsigned deal. - **Iran's draft framework, as reported by Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, would give Tehran exclusive authority to determine which vessels qualify for transit through Hormuz**, including the right to require cargo manifests, ownership records, and destination data from all ships [9]. Iran's economic negotiating team says the most contested issue in recent Qatar talks was not nuclear material but guarantees that unfrozen assets "will not be frozen again" through a future US directive [9]. The $12 billion immediate asset access demand and the anti-re-freezing guarantee are the economic preconditions Iran is most focused on. Washington has not publicly addressed either. ## MARKETS & MONEY Oil's slide continued through Thursday, with Brent at $91.12 and WTI at $87.36, down around two dollars on the week and nearly thirty dollars off the April high. The Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has dropped from 76 in late April to 57.84 now. Markets are pricing a Hormuz deal as near-certain, faster than the diplomacy actually warrants. Gold jumped to $4,593, a new series high, and the Gold/Oil ratio hit 52.58, also a series record. That divergence between collapsing oil and rising gold is the market's honest assessment: energy traders think this ends, macro hedgers think something can still go wrong. Given Trump's last-minute amendments, two drones shot down in two days, and Israel accelerating in Lebanon, gold looks like the smarter read right now. Defence stocks are steady and the Defence ETF (ITA) remains near its series high. The Israeli TA-125 equity index is quietly at its highest point in the data series at 4,430, which tells you what Israeli markets think about the Lebanon campaign's trajectory. ## WHAT TO WATCH 1. **Iran's response to Trump's amended terms, expected within roughly 72 hours of Friday's Situation Room meeting.** The US official said it "could be a week" [3]. Watch for any signal from Pakistan's mediating channel, from Ghalibaf's public statements, or from Iranian state media. If Tehran responds with counter-amendments rather than rejection, the deal is still alive. If the response is silence or a hardened public position on the blockade, the ceasefire extension clock starts mattering. 2. **Nabatieh.** Israeli forces are in the vicinity but have not yet assaulted the city [6]. The distinction between a cordon operation and a direct assault matters enormously, both militarily and diplomatically. A ground assault on one of southern Lebanon's largest cities would almost certainly trigger a UN Security Council vote, deepen the France-Israel rift, and give Tehran a public justification for hardening its negotiating position. Watch IDF statements for language about "expanding" versus "holding" the current perimeter. 3. **The Qatari tanker escort story.** If a second source confirms that the US Navy has been quietly shepherding tankers through Hormuz [5], watch for an Iranian reaction. Tehran's draft framework gives Iran authority over exactly this kind of transit arrangement [9]. If Iran publicly objects to vessels transiting without Iranian clearance, the Hormuz question stops being a negotiating clause and becomes an active confrontation point again. ## References 1. [BBC] BBC News: Israel seizes castle in Lebanon as it expands ground offensive 2. [CRD] The Cradle: Trump seeking last-minute changes to draft deal reached with Iran: Report 3. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Trump tightens terms on Iran war deal, US media say 4. [TOI] The Times of Israel: Soldier killed in Hezbollah drone strike in Lebanon; IDF captures strategic Beaufort Castle 5. [TOI] The Times of Israel: Trump said seeking changes to Iran deal, focused on fate of uranium stockpile 6. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Israeli army announces 'large-scale' offensive in southern Lebanon 7. [MHR] Mehr News Agency: IRGC shoots down US MQ-1 drone in Iranian waters 8. [PTV] Press TV: IRGC shoots down intruding US MQ-1 Predator drone over Persian Gulf 9. [AAM] Anadolu Agency — Middle East: Iranian state media reports details of draft informal Iran-US agreement 10. [TTM] Tehran Times: Iran says no final agreement reached with US as indirect contacts continue 11. [TTM] Tehran Times: Leader’s advisor: Trump is ‘betraying diplomacy’ for the third time