# SITREP: 2026-05-13 (Day 75) Lead: IRAN REBUILT ITS MISSILES AND WASHINGTON KNEW Compiled by a language model from that day's archived articles; analysis, not archive record. Page: https://iranwar.liminallayers.com/bulletins/sitrep-2026-05-13/ Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); sources remain their publishers'. ## OVERVIEW The diplomatic picture has not improved. Talks collapsed over the weekend after Iran's counter-proposal refused any up-front nuclear concessions, Trump called it "garbage," and now both sides are posturing publicly while the ceasefire technically holds [3]. Trump flew to Beijing for his Xi summit and declared he does not need China's help on Iran, which is either confidence or bluster, depending on what happens in the room [11]. The intelligence picture underneath all this is grimmer than Washington has been letting on: US assessments now show Iran has rebuilt access to 90 percent of its missile sites and retained 70 percent of its pre-war stockpile, directly contradicting months of White House claims that Iran's military was "shattered" [4] [7]. ## Lead story: IRAN REBUILT ITS MISSILES AND WASHINGTON KNEW Here is the thing nobody in the Trump administration wants to say out loud: the military campaign did not do what it was advertised to do. Classified US intelligence assessments from early May, reported by the New York Times and confirmed by multiple sources, show Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz [7]. Nationwide, Iran has restored access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities, retains approximately 70 percent of its pre-war launcher capacity, and holds 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile, including both ballistic and cruise missiles [4] [7]. Critically, the sites are not just standing; many are assessed as "partially or fully operational," with mobile launchers capable of relocating missiles before any strike could hit them [7]. Trump, Hegseth, and senior Pentagon officials have repeatedly told Congress and the public that Iran's military capabilities were "decimated." The classified picture says something meaningfully different. Hegseth was grilled on this in Congress on Tuesday and dismissed concerns about munitions depletion as "overstated," while simultaneously acknowledging the administration is "working to ramp up production of weapons" [15]. Those two statements are in tension and Congress noticed. The cost side is equally uncomfortable. The war has now cost the US at least $29 billion in munitions, equipment, and operational expenses, up from $25 billion two weeks ago, and that figure does not include the cost of repairing or rebuilding the US military bases damaged across the region [15]. Sixteen bases across eight countries were hit, many heavily [7]. Why does this matter for the negotiations right now? Because Iran's negotiators have read the same intelligence picture that Washington has, or close enough to it. When Iran's deputy foreign minister writes that the US is seeking "a letter of surrender" [5], that is not just rhetoric. It is a signal that Tehran believes it has not lost the military contest decisively enough to justify accepting terms that look like capitulation. If Iran still has 30 of 33 missile sites online, it still has a credible threat against every tanker and warship in the Strait. That changes the negotiating geometry entirely. This is the story the administration least wants told. It is now being told. ## ALSO NOTABLE - **The diplomatic breakdown over the weekend is now fully documented.** Iran submitted its counter-proposal on Sunday; Washington had expected up-front concessions on transferring enriched uranium stockpiles out of the country and a commitment not to enrich for an extended period [3]. Iran's proposal offered none of that, instead calling for a permanent ceasefire first, with nuclear talks following separately. One mediating diplomat told the Times of Israel: "It thinks it's in the driver's seat" [3]. Iran is now publicly laying out five preconditions for further talks: end the war on all fronts including Lebanon, lift sanctions, unblock assets, pay war reparations, and recognise Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz [10]. Washington has described that last condition as a non-starter. - **Netanyahu made a secret trip to the UAE on 26 March, meeting President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Al Ain for several hours** [1]. Mossad director David Barnea made at least two separate UAE visits during the war to coordinate military operations [1]. This is the capstone on a week of revelations: the UAE secretly struck an Iranian refinery on Lavan Island in early April, Saudi Arabia launched its own covert retaliatory strikes on Iran in late March (the first time the kingdom has ever directly hit Iranian soil), and at least one UAE strike was coordinated directly with Israel [12]. The Gulf is not a passive bystander to this war. It is a co-belligerent that has been very careful not to say so publicly. - **A UN Security Council resolution on Hormuz freedom of navigation now has 112 co-sponsors, covering roughly two-thirds of all UN member states** [9]. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, India, Japan, South Korea and most EU members are on the list. China and Russia have not committed to vetoing this one, unlike the first resolution last month, though both have voiced reservations [9]. A vote date has not been set. The geopolitical significance: even countries that have stayed neutral on the war itself are willing to sign a document saying the Strait needs to reopen. That is not nothing, even if a Security Council resolution does not move Iranian missile batteries. - **The UK formally committed Typhoon jets, a warship, and mine-hunting drones to the multinational Hormuz security mission, backed by £115 million in new funding** [13]. HMS Dragon, already en route, will be "ready for any mission" to secure the strait. Defence minister John Healey made the announcement at a 40-plus nation virtual summit on Tuesday. The mission is framed as strictly defensive and will activate "when conditions allow," which is diplomatic language for "when there is a ceasefire that actually holds." Separately, Keir Starmer's government is under significant domestic political pressure, with dozens of Labour MPs calling for him to resign, and the Hormuz commitment is visibly being used to demonstrate competent crisis management [13]. - **Israel struck a highway south of Beirut Wednesday, killing eight people including two children** [8]. Lebanon and Israel are due in Washington Thursday for another round of US-brokered negotiations. Hezbollah opposes those talks. The Israeli military simultaneously issued forced displacement orders for six southern Lebanese villages, placing at least one of the three remaining functioning hospitals in the area inside an evacuation zone [8]. The Lebanon front is escalating into the diplomatic window, not pausing for it. ## MARKETS & MONEY Oil is drifting down, not up: Brent fell from $108 to $105 over two days, and the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) dropped from 75 to 71. On the surface that looks like relief. What it actually reflects is the Trump-Xi summit temporarily suppressing escalation risk while both sides hold their positions. The more interesting signal is silver, up another 2 percent on the day to $88, continuing a move from $73 five weeks ago. Silver tracks gold in a fear trade but accelerates when institutional positioning becomes retail panic buying. Gold itself is holding above $4,689, steady but not spiking, suggesting war-premium hedging is sticky rather than growing. Defence stocks remain well below their April highs: Lockheed Martin is at $519 versus $619 a month ago, Rheinmetall at $1,121 versus $1,495 [[market data]]. The market is saying sustained procurement, not imminent escalation. The S&P 500 is quietly grinding higher, which is either a sign that investors have decided the war is manageable or that they have stopped fully pricing in the downside scenarios. Given what the intelligence picture on Iranian missiles actually shows, the second interpretation deserves more attention. ## WESTERN IMPACTS The inflation number is now confirmed and it is not good. US consumer prices rose 3.8 percent year-on-year in April, the biggest jump in three years, with gasoline up 28 percent versus a year ago and averaging above $4.50 a gallon at the pump [14]. Real wages fell 0.3 percent year-on-year after inflation adjustment, the first such decline in three years. Core inflation is still contained at 2.8 percent, which is the one number keeping the Federal Reserve from a full-blown policy crisis, but the energy shock has not yet fully fed through into broader prices [14]. The political consequence is blunt: inflation is now eating all wage gains for middle and lower-income households, and the November midterms are less than six months away [14]. Trump's statement that he "doesn't think about Americans' financial situations" will be in opposition campaign material before the week is out [11]. ## WHAT TO WATCH 1. **The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.** The specific thing to watch is not the press conference, it is whether any joint language emerges on the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts are clear that China will require concessions on Taiwan or trade to put meaningful pressure on Iran [2], and Trump publicly said he does not need Xi's help [11]. If the summit produces nothing on Iran, Tehran's reading will be that the diplomatic ceiling just got higher. Watch also for any US announcement on Chinese entity sanctions in the margins of the visit: sanctioning Chinese firms while inside Beijing would be a remarkable signal of how compartmentalised this administration's policy has become. 2. **Thursday's Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington.** Both sides are arriving mid-escalation: Israel just killed eight people on a Beirut highway and issued displacement orders covering a functioning hospital zone [8]. Hezbollah is not participating and has said it opposes the talks [8]. The question is whether the US has any actual leverage over Israeli behaviour in Lebanon while simultaneously needing Israeli acquiescence to any Iran deal. Those two things are pulling in opposite directions. 3. **Congressional pressure on Hegseth and the munitions question.** The gap between the administration's public claims (Iran "decimated," stockpiles fine) and the classified picture (Iran at 90 percent of missile sites, US at $29 billion and counting) is now on the record [4] [7] [15]. Republicans on the Senate Appropriations Committee, including Mitch McConnell, are already pushing back on alliance strategy [15]. Watch for whether any Republican senator calls for an independent assessment of Iran's military reconstitution. That would be a significant break and would matter more than any Democratic criticism. ## References 1. [GDN] The Guardian — Middle East: Benjamin Netanyahu made secret trip to UAE at height of the Iran war 2. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Trump-Xi summit: China’s help in Iran may require US concessions 3. [TOI] The Times of Israel: US-Iran talks stalled after Tehran tried skirting up-front nuke concessions, officials 4. [SPK] Sputnik: US Intelligence Believes Iran Restored 90% of Missile Sites Along Hormuz Strait - Reports 5. [RTN] RT (Russia Today): Iran rebukes US for expecting ‘letter of surrender’ 6. [CRD] The Cradle: Iraq, Pakistan ink Hormuz safe passage deals with Iran: Report 7. [CRD] The Cradle: US intel agencies say Iran retains 'majority' of pre-war missile stock: Report 8. [AJE] Al Jazeera: At least eight killed in Israeli drone strikes on Lebanon highway 9. [AJE] Al Jazeera: Bahrain-led UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz gains support of 112 nations 10. [SPK] Sputnik: Iran to Hold Talks With US If Washington Meets 5 Conditions - Reports 11. [TOI] The Times of Israel: Trump says US will ‘finish the job’ against Iran, ‘peacefully or otherwise’ 12. [TOI] The Times of Israel: Saudi Arabia covertly launched strikes on Iran during war, sources say 13. [BBC] BBC News: UK promises jets, drones and warship for Strait of Hormuz defence mission 14. [APW] Associated Press: US consumer prices rise 3.8% as Iran war sends energy prices higher 15. [APW] Associated Press: Hegseth faces new questioning from Congress on the Iran war 16. [CNN] CNN: Trump pushed DOJ to subpoena reporters over alleged Iran war leaks, sources say | CNN Politics